{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3312068-4923-4c2e-847b-ad46ee62607b", "symbol": "NBTB", "name": "NBT Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.44, "architecture_energy": 79.247, "architecture_maturity": 44.048, "architecture_confidence": 84.885, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 77.65, "upward_expansion": 96.22, "deceleration": 41.17, "rotation_down": 12.73, "downward_expansion": 18.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.414667, 51.270727, 48.994749, 47.428459 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 52.66, "trend_reference": 45.767459, "distance_from_trend": 0.150599, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.271532, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307623, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.290475, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.147852, "excess_performance": -0.039602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150599, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068305, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.307623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142573, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052905, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152985, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.19486, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1869230, "relative_activity": 1.167143, "balance": 3.19486, "dry_up": 1.354341, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046665, "annualized_volatility": 0.218146, "from_high_reference": -0.033761, "from_low_reference": 0.378345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.767459, "fair_value_reference": 40.271532, "structural_low": 39.637742, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.022009, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.002637, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.128737, "worst_return": -0.125048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011425, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.024066, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.220945, "worst_return": -0.134932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025401, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.072998, "worst_return": -0.085253, "sufficient": true }, { 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"up", "direction": 73.080968, "energy": 76.946064, "activity_lines": [ 49.468667, 48.199425, 46.387774, 45.450523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.45, "volume": 2163864, "typical_volume": 1472521.6, "trend": 44.680213, "fair_value": 39.913654, "relative_strength": 9.499667, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.199995, "energy": 85.491434, "activity_lines": [ 50.631333, 49.16118, 47.108803, 45.972596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.38, "volume": 2082921, "typical_volume": 1523989.25, "trend": 45.026137, "fair_value": 40.02945, "relative_strength": 10.952021, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.072192, "energy": 87.199094, "activity_lines": [ 51.486, 49.978796, 47.773461, 46.469357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.65, "volume": 2560128, "typical_volume": 1598275.45, "trend": 45.417775, "fair_value": 40.151097, "relative_strength": 10.745338, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.009124, "energy": 83.970085, "activity_lines": [ 52.050667, 50.688311, 48.411044, 46.961219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.66, "volume": 1869230, "typical_volume": 1601543.1, "trend": 45.767459, "fair_value": 40.271532, "relative_strength": 5.290475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.439828, "energy": 79.24676, "activity_lines": [ 52.414667, 51.270727, 48.994749, 47.428459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }