{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3327bab-0280-42a5-9a8c-0c492d977b38", "symbol": "329670", "name": "Samsung Kodex TRF7030 ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.015, "architecture_energy": 20.455, "architecture_maturity": 62.152, "architecture_confidence": 71.099, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.2, "rotation_up": 19.03, "upward_expansion": 48.19, "deceleration": 85.04, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 28.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 22447.662109, 22713.243857, 22756.385073, 22508.144321 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22495.0, "trend_reference": 22175.628711, "distance_from_trend": 0.014402, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18322.509653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.735829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053468, "excess_performance": -0.176361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02766, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248825, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053468, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.320904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71826, "relative_activity": 0.683298, "balance": 2.320904, "dry_up": 0.718202, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026187, "annualized_volatility": 0.088688, "from_high_reference": -0.054693, "from_low_reference": 0.162263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22175.628711, "fair_value_reference": 18322.509653, "structural_low": 20817.240088, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014437, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.023825, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.032173, "worst_return": -0.055407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.033053, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.053166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047797, "worst_return": -0.008791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077814, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.096447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10596, "worst_return": -0.008191, "sufficient": false 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"2026-07-31", "close": 22080.0, "volume": 85069, "typical_volume": 107895.05, "trend": 22139.341602, "fair_value": 18268.553098, "relative_strength": -23.27685, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.366446, "energy": 17.215546, "activity_lines": [ 22531.959505, 22798.403338, 22755.979623, 22485.198618 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22495.0, "volume": 71826, "typical_volume": 105116.7, "trend": 22175.628711, "fair_value": 18322.509653, "relative_strength": -16.735829, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.015248, "energy": 20.455328, "activity_lines": [ 22447.662109, 22713.243857, 22756.385073, 22508.144321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }