{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f33399b4-c227-42a3-a9e3-06fb928dda1d", "symbol": "1414", "name": "Tung Ho Textile Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 86.901, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.084, "architecture_energy": 33.689, "architecture_maturity": 27.573, "architecture_confidence": 48.063, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.28, "rotation_up": 56.26, "upward_expansion": 50.39, "deceleration": 43.05, "rotation_down": 23.1, "downward_expansion": 11.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.1, 18.843636, 17.920476, 17.806784 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.5, "trend_reference": 17.977149, "distance_from_trend": 0.08471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.951331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.01294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006433, "excess_performance": -0.434939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022622, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20046, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.143408, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1737212, "relative_activity": 1.345748, "balance": 1.143408, "dry_up": 1.245511, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071598, "annualized_volatility": 0.372647, "from_high_reference": -0.099265, "from_low_reference": 0.407942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.977149, "fair_value_reference": 19.951331, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004222, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.033097, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09887, "worst_return": -0.019499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036756, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002699, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055946, "worst_return": -0.00838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021775, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.00216, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.387896, "worst_return": -0.005587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 19.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1296111.45, "trend": 17.826765, "fair_value": 19.922992, "relative_strength": -28.318159, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.348565, "energy": 56.443513, "activity_lines": [ 18.626667, 17.625455, 17.183285, 17.500566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.299999, "volume": 1267133, "typical_volume": 1308418.25, "trend": 17.84819, "fair_value": 19.925913, "relative_strength": -27.132294, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.52784, "energy": 52.590865, "activity_lines": [ 18.676667, 17.872727, 17.268097, 17.531098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.75, "volume": 1026962, "typical_volume": 1249933.4, "trend": 17.858226, "fair_value": 19.925308, "relative_strength": -29.984871, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.363896, "energy": 45.20395, "activity_lines": [ 18.443333, 17.981818, 17.306826, 17.524763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0, "volume": 2158744, "typical_volume": 1275390.35, "trend": 17.887358, "fair_value": 19.933694, "relative_strength": -23.180851, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.210183, "energy": 32.737943, "activity_lines": [ 18.61, 18.279091, 17.478462, 17.598426 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.549999, "volume": 1508349, "typical_volume": 1259752.45, "trend": 17.933087, "fair_value": 19.942021, "relative_strength": -21.991751, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.627786, "energy": 29.404231, "activity_lines": [ 18.866666, 18.611818, 17.705443, 17.705693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.5, "volume": 1737212, "typical_volume": 1290889.7, "trend": 17.977149, "fair_value": 19.951331, "relative_strength": -24.01294, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.083662, "energy": 33.688558, "activity_lines": [ 19.1, 18.843636, 17.920476, 17.806784 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }