{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f335299d-9514-4c11-848a-ecaf29186332", "symbol": "WMGG", "name": "WisdomTree Megatrends UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.094, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.092, "architecture_energy": 39.327, "architecture_maturity": 4.625, "architecture_confidence": 65.169, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.52, "rotation_up": 14.89, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 53.83, "rotation_down": 63.4, "downward_expansion": 48.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.985167, 30.796545, 31.628024, 31.496786 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.0325, "trend_reference": 31.276657, "distance_from_trend": -0.007806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.975427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.621098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070917, "excess_performance": 0.019682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070917, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.257323, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15305, "relative_activity": 0.753776, "balance": 1.257323, "dry_up": 0.719214, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074736, "annualized_volatility": 0.685331, "from_high_reference": -0.249917, "from_low_reference": 0.314101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.276657, "fair_value_reference": 24.975427, "structural_low": 27.015, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008507, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", 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"close": 31.2625, "volume": 23014, "typical_volume": 19921.65, "trend": 31.074407, "fair_value": 24.836561, "relative_strength": 1.070602, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.777647, "energy": 14.714948, "activity_lines": [ 32.3275, 32.844, 32.340296, 31.872842 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.92, "volume": 16473, "typical_volume": 20745.3, "trend": 31.121323, "fair_value": 24.866367, "relative_strength": -7.423559, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.567772, "energy": 25.722684, "activity_lines": [ 31.086833, 32.0815, 32.046048, 31.733848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.8275, "volume": 10562, "typical_volume": 20650.5, "trend": 31.194073, "fair_value": 24.902317, "relative_strength": -5.775694, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.479745, "energy": 30.472747, "activity_lines": [ 30.423667, 31.5615, 31.895643, 31.650376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.0075, "volume": 16073, "typical_volume": 20559.6, "trend": 31.226573, "fair_value": 24.931851, "relative_strength": -9.506927, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.192216, "energy": 45.066478, "activity_lines": [ 29.765, 30.950273, 31.664786, 31.509307 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.0325, "volume": 15305, "typical_volume": 20304.45, "trend": 31.276657, "fair_value": 24.975427, "relative_strength": -3.621098, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.091691, "energy": 39.327177, "activity_lines": [ 29.985167, 30.796545, 31.628024, 31.496786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }