{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f33f0c9f-846c-4658-b8bb-606fe04e7b10", "symbol": "002039", "name": "GuiZhou QianYuan Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.084, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.554, "architecture_energy": 10.85, "architecture_maturity": 16.66, "architecture_confidence": 85.308, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.69, "rotation_up": 33.18, "upward_expansion": 54.5, "deceleration": 80.86, "rotation_down": 21.33, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.724, 19.716182, 19.978724, 19.775986 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.76, "trend_reference": 19.324934, "distance_from_trend": 0.022513, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.021276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.586983, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.147927, "excess_performance": 0.140528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022513, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04587, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147927, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37796287, "relative_activity": 0.634654, "balance": 1.225495, "dry_up": 0.819115, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087024, "annualized_volatility": 0.463482, "from_high_reference": -0.151567, "from_low_reference": 0.290928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.324934, "fair_value_reference": 16.021276, "structural_low": 16.693198, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.006959, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.020835, "regime_survival": 0.3125, "best_return": 0.165702, "worst_return": -0.102964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04183, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.069368, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.423213, "worst_return": -0.111413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.199744, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.204741, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.302194, "worst_return": -0.043079, "sufficient": true }, { 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7.898203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.40845, "energy": 15.440936, "activity_lines": [ 19.447334, 19.904822, 20.009732, 19.656688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.530001, "volume": 69187599, "typical_volume": 62012591.45, "trend": 19.188, "fair_value": 15.933817, "relative_strength": 7.472399, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.351873, "energy": 11.459287, "activity_lines": [ 19.464, 19.789643, 19.97601, 19.681728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.15, "volume": 38923426, "typical_volume": 60629150.5, "trend": 19.261003, "fair_value": 15.978337, "relative_strength": 12.372923, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.152389, "energy": 11.107472, "activity_lines": [ 19.704667, 19.793637, 19.999423, 19.743792 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.76, "volume": 37796287, "typical_volume": 59554184.9, "trend": 19.324934, "fair_value": 16.021276, "relative_strength": 4.586983, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.553614, "energy": 10.850463, "activity_lines": [ 19.724, 19.716182, 19.978724, 19.775986 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }