{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f33fb751-eea9-429a-9666-f9fa5f856e13", "symbol": "HBH", "name": "HORNBACH Holding AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.027, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.034, "architecture_energy": 45.758, "architecture_maturity": 8.847, "architecture_confidence": 76.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.03, "rotation_up": 73.08, "upward_expansion": 45.44, "deceleration": 28.57, "rotation_down": 16.77, "downward_expansion": 20.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.52, 80.484296, 79.797343, 80.078598 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 85.5, "trend_reference": 80.615353, "distance_from_trend": 0.060592, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.579704, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.245477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042683, "excess_performance": -0.131564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060592, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022173, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058823, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192455, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065008, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.155039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.155039, "dry_up": 0.374813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032209, "annualized_volatility": 0.202167, "from_high_reference": -0.199438, "from_low_reference": 0.130952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.615353, "fair_value_reference": 78.579704, "structural_low": 75.599998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.090728, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.070652, "worst_return": -0.154437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.090093, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.094384, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.010518, "worst_return": -0.169668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.178401, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.178401, "worst_return": -0.178401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161865, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131167, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078708, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-19", 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"fair_value": 78.320346, "relative_strength": -23.881222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.89648, "energy": 22.593457, "activity_lines": [ 78.194342, 77.898511, 78.78059, 79.583935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.85, "trend": 80.435353, "fair_value": 78.388938, "relative_strength": -23.373628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.665217, "energy": 18.328499, "activity_lines": [ 79.124242, 78.351955, 78.879349, 79.582299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.099998, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 33.35, "trend": 80.472019, "fair_value": 78.47055, "relative_strength": -20.019352, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.915212, "energy": 26.822673, "activity_lines": [ 80.654747, 79.236307, 79.228584, 79.754212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 33.35, "trend": 80.615353, "fair_value": 78.579704, "relative_strength": -19.245477, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.034364, "energy": 45.75804, "activity_lines": [ 82.52, 80.484296, 79.797343, 80.078598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }