{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f341d14d-0021-4d0c-b4eb-5d63667de27b", "symbol": "JEEM", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Global Emerging Markets Research Enh Idx Eq Active UCITS ETF EUR (acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.686, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.464, "architecture_energy": 25.415, "architecture_maturity": 65.792, "architecture_confidence": 87.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.63, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 55.13, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 35.47, "downward_expansion": 18.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.453667, 37.057818, 36.913214, 35.96128 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 36.77, "trend_reference": 34.692, "distance_from_trend": 0.059899, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.764199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278325, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.31578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149422, "excess_performance": 0.084782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059899, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085963, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063158, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149422, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633045, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79032, "relative_activity": 5.692164, "balance": 0.633045, "dry_up": 3.875929, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042886, "annualized_volatility": 0.227749, "from_high_reference": -0.075434, "from_low_reference": 0.411787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.692, "fair_value_reference": 28.764199, "structural_low": 30.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029467, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008364, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 25.238899, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 25.014999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"relative_strength": 11.3872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.521162, "energy": 38.888944, "activity_lines": [ 37.475, 37.693818, 36.660714, 35.546721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.465, "volume": 3746, "typical_volume": 4144.5, "trend": 34.287, "fair_value": 28.600311, "relative_strength": 11.579374, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.93796, "energy": 25.629236, "activity_lines": [ 36.969333, 37.488909, 36.772881, 35.703667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0, "volume": 127792, "typical_volume": 10295.75, "trend": 34.49, "fair_value": 28.679031, "relative_strength": 7.389334, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.757252, "energy": 25.066967, "activity_lines": [ 36.509667, 37.195364, 36.81681, 35.814183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.77, "volume": 79032, "typical_volume": 13884.35, "trend": 34.692, "fair_value": 28.764199, "relative_strength": 6.31578, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.463907, "energy": 25.415166, "activity_lines": [ 36.453667, 37.057818, 36.913214, 35.96128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }