{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f349494b-5bdd-4cb2-b6db-4aa519829b44", "symbol": "IQQQ", "name": "iShares Global Water UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.966, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.688, "architecture_energy": 17.388, "architecture_maturity": 40.737, "architecture_confidence": 74.012, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.05, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 61.82, "deceleration": 87.81, "rotation_down": 29.55, "downward_expansion": 16.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.486001, 66.886728, 66.144807, 65.925777 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.54, "trend_reference": 65.868976, "distance_from_trend": -0.004994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.916482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075899, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.037496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036436, "excess_performance": -0.071109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013618, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559568, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47701, "relative_activity": 0.947283, "balance": 0.559568, "dry_up": 1.121966, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021877, "annualized_volatility": 0.141126, "from_high_reference": -0.047973, "from_low_reference": 0.061005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.868976, "fair_value_reference": 60.916482, "structural_low": 61.771628, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032614, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.009257, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.069974, "worst_return": -0.040012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055569, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004959, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107053, "worst_return": 0.007166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016958, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077562, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123878, "worst_return": 0.006625, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038601, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", 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"activity_lines": [ 67.180002, 66.764183, 65.846361, 65.770117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.010002, "volume": 73448, "typical_volume": 51418.45, "trend": 65.869476, "fair_value": 60.735152, "relative_strength": -3.375459, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.701444, "energy": 47.176935, "activity_lines": [ 67.372669, 67.130183, 66.095237, 65.913558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 66.389999, "volume": 47833, "typical_volume": 50856.85, "trend": 65.871144, "fair_value": 60.830207, "relative_strength": -6.026432, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.224056, "energy": 28.976186, "activity_lines": [ 67.030668, 67.109274, 66.166316, 65.947141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 65.54, "volume": 47701, "typical_volume": 50355.6, "trend": 65.868976, "fair_value": 60.916482, "relative_strength": -6.037496, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.68786, "energy": 17.388321, "activity_lines": [ 66.486001, 66.886728, 66.144807, 65.925777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }