{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f34a2bb0-f68f-4ca5-997c-56c3e3fa1d68", "symbol": "BCC", "name": "Boise Cascad Llc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.724, "architecture_energy": 41.615, "architecture_maturity": 19.901, "architecture_confidence": 66.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.29, "rotation_up": 62.27, "upward_expansion": 52.57, "deceleration": 29.96, "rotation_down": 19.12, "downward_expansion": 13.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.165333, 78.38, 75.972949, 75.931931 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 86.6, "trend_reference": 77.062969, "distance_from_trend": 0.123756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.283601, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144975, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.031165, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042995, "excess_performance": -0.16862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011248, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162519, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000312, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.220484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.477751, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2718586, "relative_activity": 1.350989, "balance": 2.477751, "dry_up": 1.13344, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078163, "annualized_volatility": 0.427644, "from_high_reference": -0.052777, "from_low_reference": 0.341284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.062969, "fair_value_reference": 101.283601, "structural_low": 64.791393, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.078558, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.066558, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.233156, "worst_return": -0.205323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005782, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040761, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.211678, "worst_return": -0.073979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.364597, "worst_return": -0.194972, "sufficient": 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1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.560399, "energy": 23.29848, "activity_lines": [ 76.502667, 73.869236, 73.984306, 75.230463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 77.19, "volume": 3177482, "typical_volume": 2115537.5, "trend": 76.733092, "fair_value": 101.586323, "relative_strength": -8.523597, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.98243, "energy": 20.97391, "activity_lines": [ 76.978667, 74.821016, 74.256722, 75.266098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.84, "volume": 1631760, "typical_volume": 2097604.8, "trend": 76.838262, "fair_value": 101.499729, "relative_strength": -6.688268, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.433191, "energy": 16.638303, "activity_lines": [ 77.268, 75.768308, 74.616208, 75.337511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.38, "volume": 1595422, "typical_volume": 2026210.3, "trend": 76.928234, "fair_value": 101.36023, "relative_strength": -8.938592, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.590332, "energy": 10.894783, "activity_lines": [ 76.858667, 76.230841, 74.823637, 75.307946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.6, "volume": 2718586, "typical_volume": 2012293.05, "trend": 77.062969, "fair_value": 101.283601, "relative_strength": 0.031165, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.723586, "energy": 41.614996, "activity_lines": [ 80.165333, 78.38, 75.972949, 75.931931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }