{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f34bcf22-1175-4704-9e16-28e27568caab", "symbol": "YIELD", "name": "SaveLend Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.784, "architecture_energy": 24.416, "architecture_maturity": 16.858, "architecture_confidence": 61.389, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.92, "rotation_up": 44.35, "upward_expansion": 71.19, "deceleration": 55.48, "rotation_down": 23.21, "downward_expansion": 9.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.774333, 1.762727, 1.749452, 1.718473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.805, "trend_reference": 1.701667, "distance_from_trend": 0.060725, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.680545, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.326629, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.401793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043353, "excess_performance": -0.018142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060725, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031493, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.326629, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154136, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071222, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.867229, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49248, "relative_activity": 0.272756, "balance": 0.867229, "dry_up": 0.376791, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106329, "annualized_volatility": 0.502586, "from_high_reference": -0.2751, "from_low_reference": 0.337037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.701667, "fair_value_reference": 2.680545, "structural_low": 1.35, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.032825, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.026722, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.360704, "worst_return": -0.098765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082764, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.263768, "worst_return": -0.27572, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.15592, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.169857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133333, "worst_return": -0.300412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.256564, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.328891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.179012, "worst_return": -0.334115, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-01-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-13", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.043376, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.70875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123457, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.220183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.344928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064677, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.008523, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": 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182719.45, "trend": 1.712, "fair_value": 2.749423, "relative_strength": -9.023894, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.306908, "energy": 38.074165, "activity_lines": [ 1.803333, 1.784182, 1.742476, 1.715968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.65, "volume": 101222, "typical_volume": 181817.35, "trend": 1.704167, "fair_value": 2.714615, "relative_strength": -19.042884, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.400095, "energy": 22.5574, "activity_lines": [ 1.763, 1.759091, 1.738786, 1.711968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.805, "volume": 49248, "typical_volume": 180557.0, "trend": 1.701667, "fair_value": 2.680545, "relative_strength": -12.401793, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.783824, "energy": 24.416029, "activity_lines": [ 1.774333, 1.762727, 1.749452, 1.718473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }