{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f35c1c3c-7aac-44b3-8d4a-cd9e4b7e81aa", "symbol": "HBF", "name": "Harvest US Equity Leaders Income ETF Class A CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.961, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.475, "architecture_energy": 47.029, "architecture_maturity": 19.661, "architecture_confidence": 63.105, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.78, "rotation_up": 52.5, "upward_expansion": 74.09, "deceleration": 63.45, "rotation_down": 22.92, "downward_expansion": 7.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.945291, 10.869305, 10.853756, 10.718544 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.22, "trend_reference": 10.563711, "distance_from_trend": 0.062127, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.07046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.236983, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.74177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079801, "excess_performance": -0.04062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062127, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.236983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000137, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079801, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.319351, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74300, "relative_activity": 0.917454, "balance": 2.319351, "dry_up": 1.213496, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020344, "annualized_volatility": 0.113672, "from_high_reference": -0.010582, "from_low_reference": 0.192523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.563711, "fair_value_reference": 9.07046, "structural_low": 9.691748, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017938, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003197, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048737, "worst_return": -0.049666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040163, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.008989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065084, "worst_return": -0.078929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031917, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043205, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.089881, "worst_return": 0.027288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043219, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133087, "worst_return": -0.172789, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.057322, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054249, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034901, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.116635, "active": 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"relative_strength": -5.546829, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.802841, "energy": 25.037344, "activity_lines": [ 10.762339, 10.826806, 10.764616, 10.638207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.641205, "volume": 105400, "typical_volume": 82690.0, "trend": 10.519317, "fair_value": 9.026781, "relative_strength": -6.446117, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.153284, "energy": 17.509879, "activity_lines": [ 10.724312, 10.782198, 10.769225, 10.646527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.955, "volume": 120300, "typical_volume": 85030.0, "trend": 10.53943, "fair_value": 9.047822, "relative_strength": -3.116892, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.595412, "energy": 27.854585, "activity_lines": [ 10.803073, 10.801134, 10.801157, 10.674636 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.22, "volume": 74300, "typical_volume": 80985.0, "trend": 10.563711, "fair_value": 9.07046, "relative_strength": -3.74177, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.474671, "energy": 47.029485, "activity_lines": [ 10.945291, 10.869305, 10.853756, 10.718544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }