{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f35e8752-56a9-4a83-bf92-b2b9e4b20b53", "symbol": "JISLDVREQS", "name": "Jain Irrigation Systems Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.316, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.094, "architecture_energy": 29.955, "architecture_maturity": 24.684, "architecture_confidence": 68.449, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.8, "rotation_up": 13.14, "upward_expansion": 13.17, "deceleration": 48.92, "rotation_down": 61.93, "downward_expansion": 69.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.511333, 23.05109, 23.259428, 23.150774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.469999, "trend_reference": 23.271, "distance_from_trend": 0.008551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.251795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.670808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021323, "excess_performance": 0.065032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065284, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249003, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011461, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028323, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.948968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89193, "relative_activity": 1.106183, "balance": 0.948968, "dry_up": 1.251363, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077939, "annualized_volatility": 0.390422, "from_high_reference": -0.338501, "from_low_reference": 0.268649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.271, "fair_value_reference": 31.251795, "structural_low": 18.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00726, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.240059, "worst_return": -0.179041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.046075, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.045655, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.316558, "worst_return": -0.147919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090226, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.116225, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.759459, "worst_return": -0.159837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066129, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095238, 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31.340769, "relative_strength": -15.912988, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.432278, "energy": 30.213589, "activity_lines": [ 22.69, 23.267636, 23.309381, 23.238795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.1, "volume": 132341, "typical_volume": 83866.25, "trend": 23.373666, "fair_value": 31.305192, "relative_strength": -14.479881, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.299301, "energy": 34.556173, "activity_lines": [ 22.296, 23.031818, 23.218666, 23.144559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.469999, "volume": 89193, "typical_volume": 80631.3, "trend": 23.271, "fair_value": 31.251795, "relative_strength": -9.670808, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.094427, "energy": 29.955195, "activity_lines": [ 22.511333, 23.05109, 23.259428, 23.150774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }