{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f35ec633-c1f5-47fe-badb-402dbbc93a85", "symbol": "USDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P US Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF Dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.394, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.174, "architecture_energy": 58.073, "architecture_maturity": 48.938, "architecture_confidence": 69.987, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 65.77, "upward_expansion": 84.8, "deceleration": 65.53, "rotation_down": 19.12, "downward_expansion": 9.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.016001, 74.64108, 73.123171, 72.362246 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 75.220001, "trend_reference": 71.499151, "distance_from_trend": 0.05204, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.468527, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148949, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.428699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056485, "excess_performance": -0.114407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05204, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023625, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56822, "relative_activity": 2.094098, "balance": 1.096837, "dry_up": 1.330168, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021071, "annualized_volatility": 0.09569, "from_high_reference": -0.032665, "from_low_reference": 0.176572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.499151, "fair_value_reference": 65.468527, "structural_low": 68.300003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.016461, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.004087, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.064032, "worst_return": -0.068155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.030896, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.025043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088638, "worst_return": -0.037787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081696, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.05276, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125509, "worst_return": -0.005839, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 71.499151, "fair_value": 65.468527, "relative_strength": -6.428699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.17444, "energy": 58.073145, "activity_lines": [ 75.016001, 74.64108, 73.123171, 72.362246 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }