{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f36062d3-bbaa-4ca5-89cd-5e8d3ba1e384", "symbol": "SWT", "name": "Switch Metals Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.574, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.552, "architecture_energy": 76.263, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.13, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.12, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 37.9, "rotation_down": 69.94, "downward_expansion": 96.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.08725, 0.091177, 0.099773, 0.108382 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.11725, "distance_from_trend": -0.275053, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.102468, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.697735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.303279, "excess_performance": -0.354514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275053, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266977, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.738439, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 655757, "relative_activity": 0.598928, "balance": 1.738439, "dry_up": 0.549979, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142009, "annualized_volatility": 0.685799, "from_high_reference": -0.527778, "from_low_reference": 0.214286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.11725, "fair_value_reference": 0.102468, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.027442, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": -0.102564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012805, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.129842, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000495, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": 0.02439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.570811, "energy": 31.792898, "activity_lines": [ 0.1068, 0.110582, 0.118924, 0.120654 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.0975, "volume": 733464, "typical_volume": 1748351.25, "trend": 0.118, "fair_value": 0.103317, "relative_strength": -13.257863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.893007, "energy": 43.519786, "activity_lines": [ 0.1031, 0.107527, 0.11609, 0.119337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.0925, "volume": 7210, "typical_volume": 1594060.15, "trend": 0.117917, "fair_value": 0.103141, "relative_strength": -18.964858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.828314, "energy": 64.479644, "activity_lines": [ 0.098733, 0.104155, 0.112898, 0.117691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.09375, "volume": 225408, "typical_volume": 1444099.75, "trend": 0.118042, "fair_value": 0.103037, "relative_strength": -16.445686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.996119, "energy": 68.377547, "activity_lines": [ 0.09595, 0.1016, 0.11005, 0.116132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.09375, "volume": 637173, "typical_volume": 1309622.45, "trend": 0.118, "fair_value": 0.102933, "relative_strength": -17.250499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.858883, "energy": 68.799868, "activity_lines": [ 0.094583, 0.099432, 0.107565, 0.114565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0875, "volume": 753389, "typical_volume": 1212357.95, "trend": 0.11775, "fair_value": 0.102788, "relative_strength": -23.658642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.100666, "energy": 71.767198, "activity_lines": [ 0.09175, 0.096423, 0.104754, 0.112597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.085, "volume": 362336, "typical_volume": 1167141.35, "trend": 0.117583, "fair_value": 0.102628, "relative_strength": -26.607575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.348106, "energy": 77.385171, "activity_lines": [ 0.089083, 0.09355, 0.102073, 0.110484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 655757, "typical_volume": 1094885.4, "trend": 0.11725, "fair_value": 0.102468, "relative_strength": -26.697735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.551959, "energy": 76.262996, "activity_lines": [ 0.08725, 0.091177, 0.099773, 0.108382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }