{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f36ce7e5-8f56-4201-9024-0dcdd6deda9f", "symbol": "ALCGM", "name": "CEGEDIM", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.32, "architecture_energy": 74.312, "architecture_maturity": 16.291, "architecture_confidence": 85.721, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 13.19, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 37.98, "rotation_down": 71.99, "downward_expansion": 92.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.292, 10.482545, 10.910714, 11.09086 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.58, "trend_reference": 11.483, "distance_from_trend": -0.078638, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.268397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.857923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166929, "excess_performance": -0.220241, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078638, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017309, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166929, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.447526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62135, "relative_activity": 1.604873, "balance": 1.447526, "dry_up": 0.803373, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047623, "annualized_volatility": 0.485729, "from_high_reference": -0.308497, "from_low_reference": 0.244706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.483, "fair_value_reference": 13.268397, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.015873, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.030911, "regime_survival": 0.878788, "best_return": 0.210762, "worst_return": -0.199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.049808, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.059599, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.235955, "worst_return": -0.23141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.09399, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051715, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.153509, "worst_return": -0.221035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051868, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075718, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.256793, "worst_return": -0.410811, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.386952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.17037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022831, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096491, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"energy": 55.798591, "activity_lines": [ 11.010667, 11.178545, 11.371762, 11.584344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.46, "volume": 11393, "typical_volume": 48077.3, "trend": 11.923333, "fair_value": 13.555, "relative_strength": -12.824229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.017574, "energy": 68.546601, "activity_lines": [ 10.784, 11.028727, 11.28919, 11.483935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.16, "volume": 15318, "typical_volume": 40519.35, "trend": 11.817, "fair_value": 13.479103, "relative_strength": -15.196976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.917347, "energy": 79.64941, "activity_lines": [ 10.52, 10.852364, 11.184905, 11.370172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.1, "volume": 28116, "typical_volume": 39137.0, "trend": 11.708667, "fair_value": 13.404103, "relative_strength": -15.876905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.338651, "energy": 81.924151, "activity_lines": [ 10.309333, 10.680364, 11.077476, 11.259398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.1, "volume": 18846, "typical_volume": 38087.05, "trend": 11.583667, "fair_value": 13.334872, "relative_strength": -16.94794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.552701, "energy": 82.268745, "activity_lines": [ 10.189333, 10.524727, 10.970286, 11.155613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.58, "volume": 62135, "typical_volume": 38716.45, "trend": 11.483, "fair_value": 13.268397, "relative_strength": -14.857923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.319621, "energy": 74.312277, "activity_lines": [ 10.292, 10.482545, 10.910714, 11.09086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }