{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f36f7d39-43c3-4d9d-9e2f-f14501015988", "symbol": "BRIJ", "name": "Global X European Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF EUR Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.052, "architecture_energy": 15.91, "architecture_maturity": 24.729, "architecture_confidence": 46.794, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.32, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 52.37, "rotation_down": 47.5, "downward_expansion": 40.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.095666, 20.194727, 20.268171, 20.239327 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.344999, "trend_reference": 20.161333, "distance_from_trend": 0.00911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.010283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129632, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.605762, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015473, "excess_performance": -0.155419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027043, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018673, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015473, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.298704, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36098, "relative_activity": 1.527017, "balance": 1.298704, "dry_up": 0.917752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027665, "annualized_volatility": 0.181758, "from_high_reference": -0.042813, "from_low_reference": 0.149435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.161333, "fair_value_reference": 18.010283, "structural_low": 18.546, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033629, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024469, "worst_return": -0.042606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005685, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 15.284, "volume": 130, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, 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"close": 19.870001, "volume": 17280, "typical_volume": 29495.55, "trend": 20.099467, "fair_value": 17.964309, "relative_strength": -9.983538, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.071961, "energy": 17.147815, "activity_lines": [ 20.0254, 20.219109, 20.263186, 20.22375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.135, "volume": 12107, "typical_volume": 26055.95, "trend": 20.1391, "fair_value": 17.986459, "relative_strength": -9.165345, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.633018, "energy": 20.121826, "activity_lines": [ 20.018533, 20.186963, 20.256467, 20.226043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.344999, "volume": 36098, "typical_volume": 23639.55, "trend": 20.161333, "fair_value": 18.010283, "relative_strength": -10.605762, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.051854, "energy": 15.910285, "activity_lines": [ 20.095666, 20.194727, 20.268171, 20.239327 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }