{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3739410-ebfe-4a75-bd68-9c371d66fa73", "symbol": "EX30", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Food & Beverage UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.928, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.85, "architecture_energy": 42.338, "architecture_maturity": 48.755, "architecture_confidence": 59.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.43, "rotation_up": 53.05, "upward_expansion": 76.65, "deceleration": 65.47, "rotation_down": 24.24, "downward_expansion": 9.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.538, 66.399091, 65.132285, 64.443483 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 67.050003, "trend_reference": 63.760666, "distance_from_trend": 0.051589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.786154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.389367, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035841, "excess_performance": -0.138406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051589, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085189, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.351515, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 446, "relative_activity": 1.456802, "balance": 2.351515, "dry_up": 1.092602, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031068, "annualized_volatility": 0.185062, "from_high_reference": -0.021311, "from_low_reference": 0.146938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.760666, "fair_value_reference": 66.786154, "structural_low": 58.459999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.014445, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023127, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.051936, "worst_return": -0.110795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035693, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.070774, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005473, "worst_return": -0.115152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059216, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.111319, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.049502, "worst_return": -0.098557, "sufficient": false }, { 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65.338, 63.960523, 63.636774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 67.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 551.65, "trend": 63.284, "fair_value": 66.96968, "relative_strength": -10.855345, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.356246, "energy": 81.882667, "activity_lines": [ 66.955334, 65.813636, 64.318238, 63.891462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 360.5, "trend": 63.409333, "fair_value": 66.887885, "relative_strength": -14.136073, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.156978, "energy": 62.340268, "activity_lines": [ 66.495334, 65.849273, 64.491523, 64.011204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.629997, "volume": 892, "typical_volume": 356.6, "trend": 63.570333, "fair_value": 66.835513, "relative_strength": -11.760017, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.182624, "energy": 43.375863, "activity_lines": [ 66.421333, 66.107454, 64.799475, 64.218989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.050003, "volume": 446, "typical_volume": 306.15, "trend": 63.760666, "fair_value": 66.786154, "relative_strength": -13.389367, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.849593, "energy": 42.338143, "activity_lines": [ 66.538, 66.399091, 65.132285, 64.443483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }