{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f375665b-ce89-413c-af01-82f0c21eaffd", "symbol": "00631L", "name": "Yuanta Daily Taiwan 50 Bull 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.707, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.848, "architecture_energy": 23.863, "architecture_maturity": 77.055, "architecture_confidence": 91.461, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.74, "rotation_up": 22.74, "upward_expansion": 56.05, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 31.41, "downward_expansion": 19.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.654667, 34.733272, 33.975253, 31.495921 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.68, "trend_reference": 28.0505, "distance_from_trend": 0.200692, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.368059, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.519438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.455463, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.665266, "excess_performance": 0.285954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.200692, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.308498, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.519438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.445277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.194555, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.665266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1284220416, "relative_activity": 1.303365, "balance": 0.797962, "dry_up": 1.718647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111205, "annualized_volatility": 0.577918, "from_high_reference": -0.152917, "from_low_reference": 2.169882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.0505, "fair_value_reference": 13.368059, "structural_low": 18.927271, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023646, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.4305, "worst_return": -0.109387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.181899, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.103407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.94, "worst_return": -0.132656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.128956, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.050536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180561, "worst_return": -0.279449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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63.192488, "activity_lines": [ 37.091333, 36.366363, 32.805478, 29.781008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.169998, "volume": 1896313638, "typical_volume": 899630690.85, "trend": 26.303591, "fair_value": 12.844528, "relative_strength": 21.615384, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.491496, "energy": 44.236695, "activity_lines": [ 35.547999, 35.780908, 33.064454, 30.194665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.5, "volume": 1165177064, "typical_volume": 895247235.75, "trend": 26.910561, "fair_value": 13.01778, "relative_strength": 22.636911, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.875114, "energy": 36.030192, "activity_lines": [ 34.625332, 35.442727, 33.413324, 30.65895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.700001, "volume": 2427899930, "typical_volume": 956045705.05, "trend": 27.496394, "fair_value": 13.193683, "relative_strength": 23.690654, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.162026, "energy": 22.642912, "activity_lines": [ 34.091333, 35.100181, 33.725193, 31.096978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.68, "volume": 1284220416, "typical_volume": 985311631.05, "trend": 28.0505, "fair_value": 13.368059, "relative_strength": 19.455463, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.848376, "energy": 23.862732, "activity_lines": [ 33.654667, 34.733272, 33.975253, 31.495921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }