{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f379471e-4139-41db-8c2a-9991a4057a17", "symbol": "MET1", "name": "Metals One PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.935, "architecture_energy": 32.09, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 89.159, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.42, "rotation_up": 21.2, "upward_expansion": 3.37, "deceleration": 48.75, "rotation_down": 48.52, "downward_expansion": 76.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.013172, 0.013377, 0.013838, 0.014626 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.01333, "trend_reference": 0.015966, "distance_from_trend": -0.165101, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.120271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.889167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.69602, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.310755, "excess_performance": -0.36199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165101, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.889167, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004914, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.48696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.34439, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.310755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.75687, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10721561, "relative_activity": 0.293766, "balance": 2.75687, "dry_up": 0.408646, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.185527, "annualized_volatility": 0.436121, "from_high_reference": -0.845, "from_low_reference": 0.158123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.015966, "fair_value_reference": 0.120271, "structural_low": 0.01151, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.05643, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.068397, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 3.1, "worst_return": -0.408284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.156282, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.198263, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 11.3, "worst_return": -0.533503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.312563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.237182, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.574873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.661675, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.425, "volume": 53060, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.425, "volume": 107110, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 0.425, "volume": 4443, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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"energy": 32.090101, "activity_lines": [ 0.013172, 0.013377, 0.013838, 0.014626 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }