{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f37e0581-8646-4017-9959-b3a7482e6d1b", "symbol": "4402", "name": "J.D Development Co., LTD", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.468, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.335, "architecture_energy": 13.546, "architecture_maturity": 24.247, "architecture_confidence": 59.029, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.18, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 19.15, "deceleration": 59.04, "rotation_down": 33.74, "downward_expansion": 53.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.913334, 16.130909, 15.485714, 15.750753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.2, "trend_reference": 16.49, "distance_from_trend": -0.078229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.372628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28881, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -40.346331, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.220513, "excess_performance": -0.661885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051299, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12127, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163505, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220513, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.256271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59235, "relative_activity": 0.191134, "balance": 2.256271, "dry_up": 0.414887, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127783, "annualized_volatility": 0.470338, "from_high_reference": -0.331868, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.49, "fair_value_reference": 21.372628, "structural_low": 11.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.053513, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056323, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.265116, "worst_return": -0.20197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016154, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015893, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.585535, "worst_return": -0.371795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.127273, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.194889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.740581, "worst_return": -0.148515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170124, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014354, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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16.54, 15.180909, 15.27, 16.120323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.0, "volume": 140485, "typical_volume": 328088.15, "trend": 17.161667, "fair_value": 21.123013, "relative_strength": -41.143148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.455595, "energy": 21.279375, "activity_lines": [ 16.533333, 15.465455, 15.269524, 16.038172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 360154, "typical_volume": 335945.55, "trend": 17.043333, "fair_value": 21.178269, "relative_strength": -35.310287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.504602, "energy": 16.789867, "activity_lines": [ 16.45, 15.772727, 15.314048, 15.982581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.1, "volume": 116005, "typical_volume": 327642.15, "trend": 16.918333, "fair_value": 21.23, "relative_strength": -36.609888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.787737, "energy": 13.830595, "activity_lines": [ 16.306666, 15.998182, 15.355238, 15.92172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.8, "volume": 86680, "typical_volume": 318172.9, "trend": 16.776667, "fair_value": 21.276731, "relative_strength": -36.061283, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.148713, "energy": 8.302429, "activity_lines": [ 16.11, 16.099091, 15.381428, 15.84957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 252396, "typical_volume": 318440.5, "trend": 16.655, "fair_value": 21.330192, "relative_strength": -33.161891, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.233793, "energy": 10.329787, "activity_lines": [ 16.24, 16.294546, 15.50381, 15.844624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.2, "volume": 59235, "typical_volume": 309913.05, "trend": 16.49, "fair_value": 21.372628, "relative_strength": -40.346331, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.334631, "energy": 13.54636, "activity_lines": [ 15.913334, 16.130909, 15.485714, 15.750753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }