{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f37f1400-448d-419c-9359-7e3d9139c5e6", "symbol": "300441", "name": "Ningbo BaoSi Energy Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.93, "architecture_energy": 11.267, "architecture_maturity": 31.454, "architecture_confidence": 56.401, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.26, "rotation_up": 32.5, "upward_expansion": 27.48, "deceleration": 47.04, "rotation_down": 21.58, "downward_expansion": 47.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.704, 6.58, 6.573687, 6.752272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.81, "trend_reference": 7.041865, "distance_from_trend": -0.032927, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.139258, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.610511, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.109833, "excess_performance": -0.117232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.046119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052081, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126105, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30270763, "relative_activity": 1.161885, "balance": 0.682758, "dry_up": 1.843678, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078904, "annualized_volatility": 0.280654, "from_high_reference": -0.289153, "from_low_reference": 0.154237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.041865, "fair_value_reference": 7.139258, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.02269, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.009691, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.303751, "worst_return": -0.137581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.054538, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.02887, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.497146, "worst_return": -0.286242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107391, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.03318, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.931182, "worst_return": -0.356443, "sufficient": true }, 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"direction": -36.571464, "energy": 23.048784, "activity_lines": [ 6.566667, 6.434407, 6.598741, 6.835539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.19, "volume": 48760792, "typical_volume": 24700826.65, "trend": 7.081658, "fair_value": 7.121482, "relative_strength": -18.888742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.395499, "energy": 24.338786, "activity_lines": [ 6.476667, 6.392756, 6.539457, 6.775213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.98, "volume": 67043314, "typical_volume": 26540860.1, "trend": 7.063935, "fair_value": 7.130412, "relative_strength": -6.508255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.700268, "energy": 15.034883, "activity_lines": [ 6.640667, 6.505636, 6.56293, 6.768654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.81, "volume": 30270763, "typical_volume": 26053159.85, "trend": 7.041865, "fair_value": 7.139258, "relative_strength": -12.610511, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.930412, "energy": 11.267219, "activity_lines": [ 6.704, 6.58, 6.573687, 6.752272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }