{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f380d20f-6bfb-4595-ac28-1917afcada20", "symbol": "ARBB", "name": "Arbuthnot Banking Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.541, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.281, "architecture_energy": 13.627, "architecture_maturity": 90.567, "architecture_confidence": 64.909, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.53, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 16.23, "deceleration": 42.34, "rotation_down": 31.76, "downward_expansion": 54.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 833.0, 831.0, 835.264965, 842.9826 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 832.5, "trend_reference": 853.03289, "distance_from_trend": -0.02407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 933.758539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.810258, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040007, "excess_performance": -0.091242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021671, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040007, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140679, "relative_activity": 2.490171, "balance": 1.102633, "dry_up": 3.013376, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063636, "annualized_volatility": 0.087378, "from_high_reference": -0.262867, "from_low_reference": 0.041927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 853.03289, "fair_value_reference": 933.758539, "structural_low": 799.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008499, "positive_rate": 0.259259, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": -0.023223, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.214789, "worst_return": -0.15727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.031136, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.051468, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.201201, "worst_return": -0.064607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005996, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057646, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123595, "worst_return": -0.086294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 826.666667, 829.090909, 837.073158, 845.452574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 840.0, "volume": 108694, "typical_volume": 50412.9, "trend": 854.605859, "fair_value": 935.269235, "relative_strength": -13.445714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.341598, "energy": 16.90429, "activity_lines": [ 831.333333, 830.727273, 836.425756, 844.408784 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 832.5, "volume": 140679, "typical_volume": 56493.7, "trend": 853.03289, "fair_value": 933.758539, "relative_strength": -13.810258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.280865, "energy": 13.626726, "activity_lines": [ 833.0, 831.0, 835.264965, 842.9826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }