{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f390440c-9cf6-4d33-b6ac-1f8f048f1d14", "symbol": "PWZ", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II CALIF AMT-FREE MUN BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 90.451, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.429, "architecture_energy": 17.158, "architecture_maturity": 30.913, "architecture_confidence": 68.033, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.05, "rotation_up": 15.15, "upward_expansion": 22.69, "deceleration": 75.94, "rotation_down": 53.41, "downward_expansion": 31.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.066939, 24.173137, 24.163959, 24.124259 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.17, "trend_reference": 24.076202, "distance_from_trend": 0.003896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.170005, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.615413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009107, "excess_performance": -0.116518, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096154, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013207, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009107, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.587442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1849053, "relative_activity": 1.673243, "balance": 0.587442, "dry_up": 1.229741, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010153, "annualized_volatility": 0.05502, "from_high_reference": -0.013896, "from_low_reference": 0.081849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.076202, "fair_value_reference": 23.170005, "structural_low": 23.423647, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.00233, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.020602, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.035267, "worst_return": -0.042897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014435, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.001294, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.061066, "worst_return": -0.085712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023215, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082952, 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"Developing", "return": -0.029126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.345536, "energy": 11.673806, "activity_lines": [ 24.197441, 24.244537, 24.175542, 24.128695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.895, "volume": 1252864, "typical_volume": 1065219.55, "trend": 24.068026, "fair_value": 23.157274, "relative_strength": -7.718523, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.289472, "energy": 17.329074, "activity_lines": [ 24.069491, 24.184265, 24.156462, 24.11768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.17, "volume": 1849053, "typical_volume": 1105071.6, "trend": 24.076202, "fair_value": 23.170005, "relative_strength": -9.615413, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.429366, "energy": 17.158134, "activity_lines": [ 24.066939, 24.173137, 24.163959, 24.124259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }