{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3922162-c1bc-4ec0-8ba7-b216a3e17b33", "symbol": "OLECTRA", "name": "Olectra Greentech Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.651, "architecture_energy": 24.756, "architecture_maturity": 69.594, "architecture_confidence": 87.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.6, "rotation_up": 23.77, "upward_expansion": 57.24, "deceleration": 91.08, "rotation_down": 29.37, "downward_expansion": 20.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1356.513322, 1387.163632, 1344.37952, 1279.230858 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1385.0, "trend_reference": 1196.616667, "distance_from_trend": 0.15743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1407.567013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016033, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.200905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.354788, "excess_performance": 0.398497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016033, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01132, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.082009, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.354788, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.415291, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1639518, "relative_activity": 0.544304, "balance": 0.415291, "dry_up": 0.473099, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071986, "annualized_volatility": 0.526769, "from_high_reference": -0.192043, "from_low_reference": 0.5982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1196.616667, "fair_value_reference": 1407.567013, "structural_low": 866.599976, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008752, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.031122, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.178981, "worst_return": -0.220671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057875, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.133286, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.672037, "worst_return": -0.299738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.141032, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.139769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.679001, "worst_return": -0.176478, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073945, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.144967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02619, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028293, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115012, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.648058, "energy": 38.286247, "activity_lines": [ 1387.5, 1390.692734, 1326.994525, 1257.698388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1324.199951, "volume": 1010958, "typical_volume": 3944424.4, "trend": 1188.993335, "fair_value": 1405.256601, "relative_strength": 4.194307, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.774564, "energy": 24.431355, "activity_lines": [ 1356.233317, 1384.459996, 1333.848329, 1266.585267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1385.0, "volume": 1639518, "typical_volume": 3012136.95, "trend": 1196.616667, "fair_value": 1407.567013, "relative_strength": 8.200905, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.650738, "energy": 24.755588, "activity_lines": [ 1356.513322, 1387.163632, 1344.37952, 1279.230858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }