{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3931122-fd32-4c58-96b0-0d5443e2eb64", "symbol": "KOKUYOCMLN", "name": "Kokuyo Camlin Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.276, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.792, "architecture_energy": 15.034, "architecture_maturity": 20.017, "architecture_confidence": 52.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.25, "rotation_up": 19.67, "upward_expansion": 16.58, "deceleration": 57.78, "rotation_down": 46.95, "downward_expansion": 36.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.914256, 85.704679, 86.638462, 85.816488 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 85.010002, "trend_reference": 84.992466, "distance_from_trend": 0.000206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 123.756777, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.176356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014318, "excess_performance": 0.058027, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000206, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313088, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.222871, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 504750, "relative_activity": 2.78789, "balance": 0.222871, "dry_up": 1.126892, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055481, "annualized_volatility": 0.30644, "from_high_reference": -0.335859, "from_low_reference": 0.196481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.992466, "fair_value_reference": 123.756777, "structural_low": 71.050003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.036168, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.025534, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.49701, "worst_return": -0.123539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028079, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.062555, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.081742, "worst_return": -0.225366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081281, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011488, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.809602, "worst_return": -0.172916, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096243, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.151658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1347, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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86.752052, 85.959569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 87.399078, "volume": 115611, "typical_volume": 184181.25, "trend": 85.698932, "fair_value": 125.321193, "relative_strength": -5.479233, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.474538, "energy": 23.600602, "activity_lines": [ 87.811634, 87.311713, 86.983589, 86.063534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 83.393333, "volume": 127195, "typical_volume": 184740.95, "trend": 85.531043, "fair_value": 125.033608, "relative_strength": -9.675193, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.43873, "energy": 8.74753, "activity_lines": [ 86.514882, 86.448175, 86.823059, 85.914785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.572693, "volume": 91376, "typical_volume": 181684.95, "trend": 85.360466, "fair_value": 124.654828, "relative_strength": -6.819912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.838961, "energy": 11.415371, "activity_lines": [ 85.352361, 85.855368, 86.674452, 85.78844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.940002, "volume": 92778, "typical_volume": 169902.6, "trend": 85.154799, "fair_value": 124.208464, "relative_strength": -6.049782, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.563325, "energy": 16.046923, "activity_lines": [ 85.214097, 85.861297, 86.722624, 85.82583 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.010002, "volume": 504750, "typical_volume": 181050.9, "trend": 84.992466, "fair_value": 123.756777, "relative_strength": -7.176356, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.792163, "energy": 15.03405, "activity_lines": [ 84.914256, 85.704679, 86.638462, 85.816488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }