{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3934ac7-a6d2-4d84-a2e0-296fc3fb215f", "symbol": "NJR", "name": "NewJersey Resources Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.848, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.075, "architecture_energy": 26.579, "architecture_maturity": 30.32, "architecture_confidence": 60.716, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.89, "rotation_up": 44.31, "upward_expansion": 76.02, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 25.06, "downward_expansion": 5.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.492, 57.461243, 56.792263, 56.076917 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 55.02, "trend_reference": 54.662914, "distance_from_trend": 0.006533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.756585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.091905, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067937, "excess_performance": -0.057687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006533, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067937, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.670485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4764091, "relative_activity": 1.591549, "balance": 1.670485, "dry_up": 1.104894, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052203, "annualized_volatility": 0.174918, "from_high_reference": -0.095958, "from_low_reference": 0.301467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.662914, "fair_value_reference": 44.756585, "structural_low": 50.546872, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.00725, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.004616, "regime_survival": 0.655172, "best_return": 0.0962, "worst_return": -0.080188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.042625, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.003376, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.177562, "worst_return": -0.077273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.109716, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.019721, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.190409, "worst_return": -0.161855, "sufficient": true }, { 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54.614787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 58.37, "volume": 2482859, "typical_volume": 2907902.0, "trend": 52.998799, "fair_value": 44.298047, "relative_strength": 5.972869, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.078743, "energy": 54.00654, "activity_lines": [ 57.33, 56.567627, 55.999374, 54.990019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.6, "volume": 2684939, "typical_volume": 2931625.0, "trend": 53.434973, "fair_value": 44.408346, "relative_strength": 7.834903, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.458168, "energy": 62.576567, "activity_lines": [ 57.952, 57.002358, 56.303412, 55.351387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.05, "volume": 2822104, "typical_volume": 2946501.0, "trend": 53.927998, "fair_value": 44.53817, "relative_strength": 10.83351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.759732, "energy": 69.443412, "activity_lines": [ 58.823333, 57.636674, 56.720349, 55.778163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.89, "volume": 2958273, "typical_volume": 2976230.35, "trend": 54.351316, "fair_value": 44.654604, "relative_strength": 5.526737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.735618, "energy": 51.701668, "activity_lines": [ 58.645333, 57.819935, 56.900826, 56.033776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.02, "volume": 4764091, "typical_volume": 2993366.6, "trend": 54.662914, "fair_value": 44.756585, "relative_strength": -3.091905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.074872, "energy": 26.578634, "activity_lines": [ 57.492, 57.461243, 56.792263, 56.076917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }