{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f395c01a-326f-4ee6-869b-17337327a36b", "symbol": "4082", "name": "Morabaha Marina Financing Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.029, "architecture_energy": 40.172, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.25, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.85, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 5.71, "deceleration": 57.75, "rotation_down": 43.41, "downward_expansion": 76.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.656, 7.664, 7.839381, 8.046796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.9, "trend_reference": 8.409667, "distance_from_trend": -0.060605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.601329, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.082333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.152361, "excess_performance": -0.120531, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060605, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019843, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140823, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04205, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.783106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 217592, "relative_activity": 0.582444, "balance": 1.783106, "dry_up": 0.836342, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047225, "annualized_volatility": 0.243669, "from_high_reference": -0.330508, "from_low_reference": 0.083676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.409667, "fair_value_reference": 10.601329, "structural_low": 7.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.021296, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.03849, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.039783, "worst_return": -0.078125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.07627, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038862, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.003617, "worst_return": -0.15115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.144167, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122634, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.016275, "worst_return": -0.272059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.553333, 7.632, 7.855524, 8.082903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9, "volume": 217592, "typical_volume": 373584.7, "trend": 8.409667, "fair_value": 10.601329, "relative_strength": -14.082333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.029375, "energy": 40.171978, "activity_lines": [ 7.656, 7.664, 7.839381, 8.046796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }