{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3989bef-d7f0-4f25-b4a1-624f0d359b40", "symbol": "RSPC", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR S&P 500A EQL WGT COMMCATN SERVICE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.27, "architecture_energy": 38.326, "architecture_maturity": 36.931, "architecture_confidence": 83.525, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.91, "rotation_up": 23.18, "upward_expansion": 4.96, "deceleration": 57.8, "rotation_down": 44.03, "downward_expansion": 73.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.791607, 35.832805, 36.391813, 36.807239 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.401, "trend_reference": 37.369842, "distance_from_trend": -0.025926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.366473, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.106018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.036765, "excess_performance": -0.16239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090945, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15106, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.567556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21237, "relative_activity": 0.34155, "balance": 0.567556, "dry_up": 0.837134, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030684, "annualized_volatility": 0.150758, "from_high_reference": -0.117319, "from_low_reference": 0.055101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.369842, "fair_value_reference": 33.366473, "structural_low": 34.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.014166, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.015356, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.08207, "worst_return": -0.133646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.036823, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.047633, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.103001, "worst_return": -0.115885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057544, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07627, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.066414, "worst_return": -0.132715, "sufficient": false 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37.199523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.8167, "volume": 37772, "typical_volume": 59433.45, "trend": 37.611425, "fair_value": 33.253703, "relative_strength": -15.676036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.499677, "energy": 53.987717, "activity_lines": [ 35.619507, 35.88967, 36.573833, 37.008504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.57, "volume": 97915, "typical_volume": 63593.05, "trend": 37.479184, "fair_value": 33.307786, "relative_strength": -14.436924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.722598, "energy": 45.932877, "activity_lines": [ 35.572693, 35.768898, 36.437877, 36.876799 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.401, "volume": 21237, "typical_volume": 62178.25, "trend": 37.369842, "fair_value": 33.366473, "relative_strength": -15.106018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.270134, "energy": 38.32607, "activity_lines": [ 35.791607, 35.832805, 36.391813, 36.807239 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }