{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f39a046b-3ea4-43ab-b664-ce3aa058a74b", "symbol": "P7V", "name": "Photon Energy N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.45, "architecture_energy": 73.396, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.124, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.52, "rotation_up": 13.71, "upward_expansion": 16.62, "deceleration": 39.32, "rotation_down": 69.08, "downward_expansion": 89.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.231667, 0.243018, 0.267467, 0.284391 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.316533, "distance_from_trend": -0.257582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.105744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.787473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.726178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.46347, "excess_performance": -0.52811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257582, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.787473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016156, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.477262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.46347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.09655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.09655, "dry_up": 0.801334, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127332, "annualized_volatility": 0.715638, "from_high_reference": -0.701777, "from_low_reference": 0.175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.316533, "fair_value_reference": 1.105744, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.05569, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.066939, "regime_survival": 0.962963, "best_return": 0.11413, "worst_return": -0.245427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.158329, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.181567, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.006897, "worst_return": -0.406143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.354314, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.377843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.114943, "worst_return": -0.498559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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-65.73314, "energy": 77.244693, "activity_lines": [ 0.230667, 0.249564, 0.272152, 0.290114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1319.05, "trend": 0.316533, "fair_value": 1.105744, "relative_strength": -47.726178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.450231, "energy": 73.396123, "activity_lines": [ 0.231667, 0.243018, 0.267467, 0.284391 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }