{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f39c88fd-1531-424a-a778-c63e0f7a1169", "symbol": "LUVE", "name": "LU-VE S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.038, "architecture_energy": 24.84, "architecture_maturity": 72.567, "architecture_confidence": 90.645, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.32, "rotation_up": 20.31, "upward_expansion": 49.67, "deceleration": 85.14, "rotation_down": 35.85, "downward_expansion": 25.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.313333, 60.945454, 61.246731, 57.094539 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 59.099998, "trend_reference": 51.634281, "distance_from_trend": 0.144588, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.756555, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.861033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.230218, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.520624, "excess_performance": 0.349732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.861033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239558, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.142302, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309254, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.520624, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122698, "relative_activity": 1.036761, "balance": 0.735696, "dry_up": 1.019509, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088377, "annualized_volatility": 0.443984, "from_high_reference": -0.165254, "from_low_reference": 0.871537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.634281, "fair_value_reference": 31.756555, "structural_low": 34.25529, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003322, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.005662, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243315, "worst_return": -0.07438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041853, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.692254, "worst_return": -0.076539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068966, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015685, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181628, "worst_return": -0.366389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.990406, "energy": 34.026823, "activity_lines": [ 62.84, 64.659999, 60.636953, 55.643602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.599998, "volume": 104115, "typical_volume": 121693.0, "trend": 50.383443, "fair_value": 31.355813, "relative_strength": 16.893637, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.498086, "energy": 26.556611, "activity_lines": [ 60.553333, 63.210908, 60.910076, 56.150115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.900002, "volume": 123163, "typical_volume": 117985.55, "trend": 50.977978, "fair_value": 31.548364, "relative_strength": 13.96925, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.598198, "energy": 30.102, "activity_lines": [ 58.833333, 61.794545, 61.020476, 56.570538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.099998, "volume": 122698, "typical_volume": 118347.4, "trend": 51.634281, "fair_value": 31.756555, "relative_strength": 14.230218, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.03753, "energy": 24.839925, "activity_lines": [ 58.313333, 60.945454, 61.246731, 57.094539 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }