{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f39ccc8f-7837-49ba-8ac3-0b8fa4dba893", "symbol": "GNR", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.521, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.654, "architecture_energy": 30.425, "architecture_maturity": 62.653, "architecture_confidence": 77.025, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.35, "rotation_up": 62.66, "upward_expansion": 40.17, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 19.68, "downward_expansion": 19.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.181333, 70.846909, 71.245754, 71.470941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 74.04, "trend_reference": 71.29327, "distance_from_trend": 0.038527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.072112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.48671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066034, "excess_performance": -0.059591, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038527, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050408, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004867, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066034, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.206636, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1465259, "relative_activity": 1.112572, "balance": 1.206636, "dry_up": 0.745554, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031022, "annualized_volatility": 0.163216, "from_high_reference": -0.016152, "from_low_reference": 0.379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.29327, "fair_value_reference": 56.072112, "structural_low": 66.55, "invalidation": "A sustained 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"teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027627, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097854, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 68.44, "volume": 2077478, "typical_volume": 1587681.0, "trend": 69.984562, "fair_value": 55.536359, "relative_strength": -4.126182, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.05188, "energy": 61.480964, "activity_lines": [ 68.462, 69.772948, 71.112657, 71.085438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.61, "volume": 758127, "typical_volume": 1486799.1, "trend": 70.288923, "fair_value": 55.657304, "relative_strength": -1.109254, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.331305, "energy": 60.078008, "activity_lines": [ 68.649333, 69.55134, 70.906366, 71.061273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.78, "volume": 802178, "typical_volume": 1406815.55, "trend": 70.616198, "fair_value": 55.785917, "relative_strength": 2.374941, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.893332, "energy": 20.383004, "activity_lines": [ 69.723333, 69.790802, 70.930848, 71.157471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.38, "volume": 902017, "typical_volume": 1390164.8, "trend": 70.945023, "fair_value": 55.923, "relative_strength": 1.882568, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.976549, "energy": 12.713623, "activity_lines": [ 70.846, 70.163011, 71.011138, 71.271265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.04, "volume": 1465259, "typical_volume": 1317001.3, "trend": 71.29327, "fair_value": 56.072112, "relative_strength": 0.48671, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.65377, "energy": 30.424948, "activity_lines": [ 72.181333, 70.846909, 71.245754, 71.470941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }