{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f39d50fd-9d05-41c9-ae60-5cfc1479d64d", "symbol": "I49", "name": "IFS Capital Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.995, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.619, "architecture_energy": 59.174, "architecture_maturity": 23.45, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.11, "rotation_up": 24.21, "upward_expansion": 9.05, "deceleration": 53.3, "rotation_down": 58.43, "downward_expansion": 82.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1736, 0.174982, 0.183197, 0.187506 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.165, "trend_reference": 0.188317, "distance_from_trend": -0.123817, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.134009, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.88098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029463, "excess_performance": -0.184298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006211, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231256, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.420191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029463, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.029814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284300, "relative_activity": 1.373065, "balance": 0.029814, "dry_up": 0.940571, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050816, "annualized_volatility": 0.315512, "from_high_reference": -0.316739, "from_low_reference": 0.313966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.188317, "fair_value_reference": 0.134009, "structural_low": 0.156, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.009176, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.006375, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.059318, "worst_return": -0.100002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.019478, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050256, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.097555, "worst_return": -0.106871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.018587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.067792, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.028568, "worst_return": -0.181817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.436168, "energy": 67.76261, "activity_lines": [ 0.1756, 0.180491, 0.191127, 0.190968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.175, "volume": 51100, "typical_volume": 375390.0, "trend": 0.188204, "fair_value": 0.133274, "relative_strength": -14.174326, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.63755, "energy": 63.608281, "activity_lines": [ 0.1754, 0.178291, 0.18911, 0.19011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.187, "volume": 19400, "typical_volume": 283085.0, "trend": 0.188577, "fair_value": 0.133611, "relative_strength": -9.750095, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.517796, "energy": 33.743535, "activity_lines": [ 0.179267, 0.179, 0.188207, 0.190032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.173, "volume": 424200, "typical_volume": 278370.0, "trend": 0.18858, "fair_value": 0.133853, "relative_strength": -17.104246, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.746958, "energy": 34.544986, "activity_lines": [ 0.177667, 0.177491, 0.186, 0.189028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.165, "volume": 284300, "typical_volume": 207055.0, "trend": 0.188317, "fair_value": 0.134009, "relative_strength": -21.88098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.61909, "energy": 59.174251, "activity_lines": [ 0.1736, 0.174982, 0.183197, 0.187506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }