{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3a118e9-57e5-4c24-84d1-189f0fb2f2bf", "symbol": "UB32", "name": "UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.766, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.143, "architecture_energy": 21.046, "architecture_maturity": 64.451, "architecture_confidence": 87.502, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.02, "rotation_up": 16.29, "upward_expansion": 45.82, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 41.76, "downward_expansion": 28.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 12264.133333, 12488.872727, 12504.140476, 12242.240856 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12410.0, "trend_reference": 11896.733659, "distance_from_trend": 0.043143, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9256.415208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.654976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10982, "excess_performance": 0.058585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043143, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06825, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02655, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10982, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.342787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36340, "relative_activity": 1.745269, "balance": 1.342787, "dry_up": 1.342883, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040863, "annualized_volatility": 0.233131, "from_high_reference": -0.099954, "from_low_reference": 0.348449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11896.733659, "fair_value_reference": 9256.415208, "structural_low": 10429.213867, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.001754, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.001922, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.129834, "worst_return": -0.027791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037877, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005988, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231173, "worst_return": -0.03677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015985, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.016257, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.262415, "worst_return": -0.047515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007711, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093649, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.107212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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"energy": 26.068995, "activity_lines": [ 12613.566667, 12741.163636, 12467.154762, 12151.437124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12240.0, "volume": 33490, "typical_volume": 21258.3, "trend": 11792.052637, "fair_value": 9200.006852, "relative_strength": 3.217108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.879481, "energy": 26.011571, "activity_lines": [ 12416.366667, 12649.245455, 12484.019048, 12184.551852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12119.5, "volume": 24079, "typical_volume": 21732.5, "trend": 11843.267806, "fair_value": 9226.306375, "relative_strength": 0.770889, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.478263, "energy": 23.554661, "activity_lines": [ 12262.3, 12539.327273, 12483.12619, 12205.677489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12410.0, "volume": 36340, "typical_volume": 20822.0, "trend": 11896.733659, "fair_value": 9256.415208, "relative_strength": 2.654976, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.142555, "energy": 21.046434, "activity_lines": [ 12264.133333, 12488.872727, 12504.140476, 12242.240856 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }