{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3a26f35-49b7-4fb3-9513-029fc111a3a5", "symbol": "LEVMIB", "name": "Amundi FTSE MIB Daily (2x) Leveraged UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.638, "architecture_energy": 61.199, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.556, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 54.85, "upward_expansion": 83.5, "deceleration": 68.24, "rotation_down": 28.03, "downward_expansion": 10.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.970334, 27.732818, 26.532824, 25.156133 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.155001, "trend_reference": 23.517767, "distance_from_trend": 0.239701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.682138, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.985746, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.152313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.39331, "excess_performance": 0.222418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.239701, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.985746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14837, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181523, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043819, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.39331, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.58859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 459872, "relative_activity": 1.100256, "balance": 1.58859, "dry_up": 0.889225, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051792, "annualized_volatility": 0.362175, "from_high_reference": -0.01203, "from_low_reference": 0.734547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.517767, "fair_value_reference": 14.682138, "structural_low": 17.096001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.025154, "positive_rate": 0.595238, "directional_follow_through": 0.595238, "median_excess_return": 0.00871, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.167433, "worst_return": -0.294549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.086395, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": 0.046518, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.275641, "worst_return": -0.195408, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.215651, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.114831, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.355894, "worst_return": -0.369961, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 65.073073, "energy": 63.666819, "activity_lines": [ 27.601334, 27.078182, 25.457481, 24.202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.145, "volume": 296214, "typical_volume": 447965.25, "trend": 23.003767, "fair_value": 14.418084, "relative_strength": 15.332581, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.706844, "energy": 59.039035, "activity_lines": [ 27.433333, 27.210273, 25.779062, 24.484985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.49, "volume": 343378, "typical_volume": 426798.45, "trend": 23.238433, "fair_value": 14.544083, "relative_strength": 15.328328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.316602, "energy": 53.176055, "activity_lines": [ 27.452333, 27.344273, 26.095924, 24.774419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.155001, "volume": 459872, "typical_volume": 417968.05, "trend": 23.517767, "fair_value": 14.682138, "relative_strength": 18.152313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.637523, "energy": 61.198661, "activity_lines": [ 27.970334, 27.732818, 26.532824, 25.156133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }