{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3b6d5d9-efc2-4a0c-a5a1-cc653876ce0d", "symbol": "PRQ", "name": "Petrus Resources Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.856, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.348, "architecture_energy": 21.927, "architecture_maturity": 51.455, "architecture_confidence": 74.953, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.02, "rotation_up": 29.65, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 23.51, "downward_expansion": 55.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.742015, 1.720821, 1.749342, 1.781247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.78, "trend_reference": 1.806856, "distance_from_trend": -0.014863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.37015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.8204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010458, "excess_performance": -0.109963, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.299128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010458, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70427, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 271500, "relative_activity": 0.68892, "balance": 0.70427, "dry_up": 0.602393, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043441, "annualized_volatility": 0.406689, "from_high_reference": -0.217779, "from_low_reference": 0.318188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.806856, "fair_value_reference": 1.37015, "structural_low": 1.630575, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.00755, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.031185, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.197279, "worst_return": -0.112994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020548, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.045615, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.100033, "worst_return": -0.170454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.031481, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.165848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35248, "worst_return": -0.153409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.34803, 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"activity_lines": [ 1.682268, 1.70433, 1.779148, 1.799844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.73, "volume": 221300, "typical_volume": 432920.0, "trend": 1.814871, "fair_value": 1.361466, "relative_strength": -8.743748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.74136, "energy": 56.330899, "activity_lines": [ 1.695533, 1.70415, 1.770192, 1.794174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.72, "volume": 305900, "typical_volume": 416840.0, "trend": 1.809259, "fair_value": 1.3644, "relative_strength": -9.492104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.609321, "energy": 32.541103, "activity_lines": [ 1.706782, 1.704137, 1.760338, 1.788054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.73, "volume": 150900, "typical_volume": 401535.0, "trend": 1.80625, "fair_value": 1.367089, "relative_strength": -8.522302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.254816, "energy": 26.335836, "activity_lines": [ 1.718054, 1.707572, 1.752244, 1.78294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.78, "volume": 271500, "typical_volume": 394095.0, "trend": 1.806856, "fair_value": 1.37015, "relative_strength": -8.8204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.348401, "energy": 21.926589, "activity_lines": [ 1.742015, 1.720821, 1.749342, 1.781247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }