{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3ba21ce-2c03-45f2-a3cf-879a51e295f8", "symbol": "TCH-F51", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4A) S&P Industrial Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.092, "architecture_energy": 64.831, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.278, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 56.24, "downward_expansion": 79.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.227333, 46.137818, 1183.283238, 1996.830925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.53, "trend_reference": 2917.523, "distance_from_trend": -0.983709, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3239.356987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985327, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.744817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988985, "excess_performance": -1.017885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.31259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987448, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.825653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988985, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.15708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9481, "relative_activity": 0.700307, "balance": 0.15708, "dry_up": 2.721325, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.559986, "annualized_volatility": 6.369166, "from_high_reference": -0.989579, "from_low_reference": 0.087643 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2917.523, "fair_value_reference": 3239.356987, "structural_low": 43.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.03286, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.005224, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.168045, "worst_return": -0.081542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.076068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031226, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.18845, "worst_return": -0.061544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.13104, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108309, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178419, "worst_return": -0.076475, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116109, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037007, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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"relative_strength": -98.872672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.680018, "energy": 89.035941, "activity_lines": [ 46.333333, 835.358182, 2206.98619, 2823.998925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.63, "volume": 122243, "typical_volume": 14810.75, "trend": 3317.739, "fair_value": 3290.885705, "relative_strength": -98.878857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.698992, "energy": 86.939507, "activity_lines": [ 46.224667, 518.208364, 1919.61981, 2604.477118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.58, "volume": 12429, "typical_volume": 15425.15, "trend": 3186.358333, "fair_value": 3273.581731, "relative_strength": -98.879812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.655211, "energy": 68.950326, "activity_lines": [ 45.970667, 281.656182, 1653.450429, 2393.370086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.41, "volume": 3216, "typical_volume": 13077.5, "trend": 3052.938667, "fair_value": 3256.674103, "relative_strength": -98.826114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.570077, "energy": 68.757048, "activity_lines": [ 45.697333, 124.935273, 1408.20019, 2190.728258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.53, "volume": 9481, "typical_volume": 13538.35, "trend": 2917.523, "fair_value": 3239.356987, "relative_strength": -98.744817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.09236, "energy": 64.830914, "activity_lines": [ 46.227333, 46.137818, 1183.283238, 1996.830925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }