{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3bc8b7d-1b2c-41b3-9882-4a01c3385afd", "symbol": "CVO", "name": "Coveo Solutions Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.024, "architecture_energy": 8.527, "architecture_maturity": 27.99, "architecture_confidence": 81.544, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.48, "rotation_up": 27.97, "upward_expansion": 27.18, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 49.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.382667, 4.331091, 4.325429, 4.448796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.51, "trend_reference": 4.810333, "distance_from_trend": -0.062435, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.299423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.382143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.577509, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.236887, "excess_performance": -0.357308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062435, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.382143, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017315, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071949, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.236887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1699300, "relative_activity": 2.210903, "balance": 0.253702, "dry_up": 1.227557, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098414, "annualized_volatility": 0.414569, "from_high_reference": -0.526758, "from_low_reference": 0.256267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.810333, "fair_value_reference": 7.299423, "structural_low": 3.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.089227, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.100295, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.166149, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.177673, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.102693, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.375776, "worst_return": -0.365682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.204312, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.236576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.216981, "worst_return": -0.400844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.12296, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.347793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048742, "worst_return": -0.294661, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.12439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016917, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.266504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060956, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208904, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168776, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.201754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.49, "volume": 622400, "typical_volume": 420555.0, "trend": 8.130333, "fair_value": 8.365543, "relative_strength": 41.132964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"fair_value": 8.513673, "relative_strength": 30.107706, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.69904, "energy": 32.401486, "activity_lines": [ 10.509333, 10.647273, 10.085, 9.396237 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 10.8, "volume": 202400, "typical_volume": 477480.0, "trend": 8.722667, "fair_value": 8.536768, "relative_strength": 38.079688, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.180323, "energy": 28.262243, "activity_lines": [ 10.523333, 10.664727, 10.222286, 9.537355 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 11.59, "volume": 599200, "typical_volume": 498290.0, "trend": 8.870667, "fair_value": 8.5673, "relative_strength": 44.366127, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.105821, "energy": 40.062093, "activity_lines": [ 10.862667, 10.833273, 10.414762, 9.722344 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.07, "volume": 595800, "typical_volume": 793270.0, "trend": 4.966, "fair_value": 7.37359, "relative_strength": -40.641128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.615192, "energy": 34.350701, "activity_lines": [ 4.214667, 4.224909, 4.286714, 4.500495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.55, "volume": 853300, "typical_volume": 751995.0, "trend": 4.895333, "fair_value": 7.334487, "relative_strength": -32.155719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.863243, "energy": 19.087955, "activity_lines": [ 4.315333, 4.281455, 4.307571, 4.473656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.51, "volume": 1699300, "typical_volume": 768600.0, "trend": 4.810333, "fair_value": 7.299423, "relative_strength": -33.577509, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.023861, "energy": 8.527091, "activity_lines": [ 4.382667, 4.331091, 4.325429, 4.448796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }