{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3c06e19-3a46-4a40-ac54-76cb51311b07", "symbol": "ETHQ", "name": "3iQ Ether Staking ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.272, "architecture_energy": 22.939, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.37, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.7, "rotation_up": 31.03, "upward_expansion": 19.55, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 19.96, "downward_expansion": 53.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.223, 9.902909, 10.23931, 10.563065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.405, "trend_reference": 11.242667, "distance_from_trend": -0.074508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.74859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.964668, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060921, "excess_performance": -0.181342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124455, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399647, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060921, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19100, "relative_activity": 1.060228, "balance": 0.571887, "dry_up": 1.303081, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075999, "annualized_volatility": 0.463145, "from_high_reference": -0.605722, "from_low_reference": 0.241647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.242667, "fair_value_reference": 14.74859, "structural_low": 8.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.061635, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.052612, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.439449, "worst_return": -0.339296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.343595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.262696, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.899075, "worst_return": -0.27251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.597756, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.620495, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.4462, "worst_return": -0.40966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.266767, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.374136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", 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14.740865, "relative_strength": -52.224387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.11642, "energy": 92.458044, "activity_lines": [ 9.078667, 9.913364, 10.67431, 11.30614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.58, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 20335.0, "trend": 12.284167, "fair_value": 14.739327, "relative_strength": -47.36262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.29924, "energy": 83.059428, "activity_lines": [ 9.172667, 9.722364, 10.547857, 11.116903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.9, "volume": 22100, "typical_volume": 20855.0, "trend": 12.0595, "fair_value": 14.73843, "relative_strength": -45.04217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.199774, "energy": 59.072694, "activity_lines": [ 9.452667, 9.640455, 10.457976, 10.963086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.06, "volume": 24400, "typical_volume": 20535.0, "trend": 11.8565, "fair_value": 14.739263, "relative_strength": -43.199748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.916118, "energy": 46.277214, "activity_lines": [ 9.696, 9.629455, 10.386238, 10.834086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.22, "volume": 19900, "typical_volume": 20575.0, "trend": 11.6745, "fair_value": 14.741699, "relative_strength": -41.514613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.880862, "energy": 30.045361, "activity_lines": [ 9.926667, 9.687, 10.330643, 10.728505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.16, "volume": 30500, "typical_volume": 19360.0, "trend": 11.454833, "fair_value": 14.744712, "relative_strength": -40.668385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.309488, "energy": 24.688321, "activity_lines": [ 10.082667, 9.764, 10.270667, 10.630796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.405, "volume": 19100, "typical_volume": 18015.0, "trend": 11.242667, "fair_value": 14.74859, "relative_strength": -39.964668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.271719, "energy": 22.939452, "activity_lines": [ 10.223, 9.902909, 10.23931, 10.563065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }