{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3ca24cb-c9f0-461e-ae34-4291716c5a18", "symbol": "WTEL", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Communication Services UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.086, "architecture_energy": 32.672, "architecture_maturity": 9.641, "architecture_confidence": 58.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.88, "rotation_up": 21.85, "upward_expansion": 12.88, "deceleration": 53.72, "rotation_down": 57.74, "downward_expansion": 47.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.316001, 79.72491, 81.337287, 81.353549 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 81.389999, "trend_reference": 81.342334, "distance_from_trend": 0.000586, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.260865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.776845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001227, "excess_performance": -0.08411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000586, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001227, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.114234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 923, "relative_activity": 1.363368, "balance": 2.114234, "dry_up": 1.378508, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030064, "annualized_volatility": 0.198755, "from_high_reference": -0.065879, "from_low_reference": 0.105242 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.342334, "fair_value_reference": 64.260865, "structural_low": 74.480003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081053, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031818, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.127551, "worst_return": 0.050511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050349, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041683, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196135, "worst_return": -0.113599, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.066323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037645, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.328659, "worst_return": -0.196012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 79.970001, "volume": 919, "typical_volume": 631.8, "trend": 81.601334, "fair_value": 63.579038, "relative_strength": -9.684946, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.750327, "energy": 46.368464, "activity_lines": [ 80.465335, 81.391638, 82.208477, 81.911528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.43, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 629.3, "trend": 81.455667, "fair_value": 63.786506, "relative_strength": -13.391415, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.908789, "energy": 57.554744, "activity_lines": [ 79.141335, 80.282001, 81.693477, 81.577893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.940002, "volume": 1827, "typical_volume": 704.55, "trend": 81.351667, "fair_value": 64.010865, "relative_strength": -11.604614, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.699834, "energy": 64.752628, "activity_lines": [ 78.644001, 79.616365, 81.344953, 81.351076 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.389999, "volume": 923, "typical_volume": 677.0, "trend": 81.342334, "fair_value": 64.260865, "relative_strength": -8.776845, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.086284, "energy": 32.672265, "activity_lines": [ 79.316001, 79.72491, 81.337287, 81.353549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }