{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3cae6a6-aa07-477b-a27c-1309caaf6272", "symbol": "OBIO", "name": "Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.122, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.652, "architecture_energy": 21.566, "architecture_maturity": 7.362, "architecture_confidence": 86.071, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.25, "rotation_up": 22.78, "upward_expansion": 7.25, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 42.72, "downward_expansion": 73.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.979333, 3.996727, 4.009429, 4.050925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.24, "trend_reference": 4.069, "distance_from_trend": 0.042025, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.987981, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149957, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.129705, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084399, "excess_performance": -0.103055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022737, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.351153, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 740358, "relative_activity": 0.571178, "balance": 1.351153, "dry_up": 0.720187, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091192, "annualized_volatility": 0.43735, "from_high_reference": -0.218289, "from_low_reference": 0.927273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.069, "fair_value_reference": 4.987981, "structural_low": 3.555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.080899, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.07165, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.636364, "worst_return": -0.404429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.11165, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.041699, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.754864, "worst_return": -0.242647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.192038, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.047036, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.437736, "worst_return": -0.571197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.255287, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053785, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.152104, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.229508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.227941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.192771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078886, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065327, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.33, "volume": 177774, "typical_volume": 326521.85, "trend": 11.8885, "fair_value": 10.681124, "relative_strength": -58.801315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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3.74, "volume": 908518, "typical_volume": 1344809.15, "trend": 4.098667, "fair_value": 5.009455, "relative_strength": -9.933752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.463342, "energy": 41.424408, "activity_lines": [ 3.867333, 3.948, 4.004, 4.048753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.98, "volume": 929230, "typical_volume": 1341960.9, "trend": 4.087667, "fair_value": 4.999071, "relative_strength": -5.087977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.286407, "energy": 41.523797, "activity_lines": [ 3.871333, 3.948, 3.99381, 4.041097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.24, "volume": 740358, "typical_volume": 1296194.1, "trend": 4.069, "fair_value": 4.987981, "relative_strength": -4.129705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.651558, "energy": 21.565528, "activity_lines": [ 3.979333, 3.996727, 4.009429, 4.050925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }