{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3cd17dc-80e6-4ec9-8937-6b6fe20c0f17", "symbol": "000570", "name": "Changchai Company, Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.328, "architecture_energy": 50.194, "architecture_maturity": 35.035, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.52, "rotation_up": 24.47, "upward_expansion": 8.32, "deceleration": 52.3, "rotation_down": 50.18, "downward_expansion": 79.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.874, 4.898364, 5.271677, 5.463514 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.93, "trend_reference": 5.650807, "distance_from_trend": -0.127558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.40289, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.575494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165744, "excess_performance": -0.173143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165744, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.107704, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53399225, "relative_activity": 0.687217, "balance": 0.107704, "dry_up": 0.772843, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078419, "annualized_volatility": 0.382912, "from_high_reference": -0.288181, "from_low_reference": 0.064795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.650807, "fair_value_reference": 5.40289, "structural_low": 4.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.010171, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.005993, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.220557, "worst_return": -0.126756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012686, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021373, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.34022, "worst_return": -0.222857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041542, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066112, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.261905, "worst_return": -0.163968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.854, 5.059411, 5.487124, 5.622087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.74, "volume": 74392927, "typical_volume": 85108068.2, "trend": 5.693844, "fair_value": 5.416391, "relative_strength": -18.026876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.814093, "energy": 76.212575, "activity_lines": [ 4.806667, 4.953091, 5.39557, 5.558676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.96, "volume": 48977373, "typical_volume": 78737424.25, "trend": 5.671165, "fair_value": 5.409326, "relative_strength": -12.313085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.19403, "energy": 59.760949, "activity_lines": [ 4.852667, 4.917818, 5.332388, 5.511332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.93, "volume": 53399225, "typical_volume": 77703565.4, "trend": 5.650807, "fair_value": 5.40289, "relative_strength": -16.575494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.327869, "energy": 50.194154, "activity_lines": [ 4.874, 4.898364, 5.271677, 5.463514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }