{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3cf4f29-2e2d-428f-8dff-e2b3a66e392e", "symbol": "ICE", "name": "Intercontinental Exchange Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.909, "architecture_energy": 23.942, "architecture_maturity": 76.312, "architecture_confidence": 40.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.11, "rotation_up": 44.5, "upward_expansion": 23.1, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 14.93, "downward_expansion": 52.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 147.556667, 142.06868, 144.006096, 147.514368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 150.3, "trend_reference": 152.80643, "distance_from_trend": -0.016403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 147.934444, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.716842, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.104464, "excess_performance": -0.230089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.015991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02248, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648374, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22400786, "relative_activity": 1.149313, "balance": 0.648374, "dry_up": 1.083273, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057934, "annualized_volatility": 0.300495, "from_high_reference": -0.186356, "from_low_reference": 0.234091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.80643, "fair_value_reference": 147.934444, "structural_low": 121.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.050103, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021687, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.146552, "worst_return": -0.113203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038159, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.191477, "worst_return": -0.115775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064434, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.001824, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.135613, "worst_return": -0.158574, "sufficient": false }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.416002, "energy": 56.427295, "activity_lines": [ 134.657333, 136.591387, 143.696861, 148.306815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 145.79, "volume": 16697949, "typical_volume": 18572557.15, "trend": 153.50436, "fair_value": 147.401173, "relative_strength": -14.798195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.304725, "energy": 33.013389, "activity_lines": [ 138.878, 137.641862, 143.374346, 147.773415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 152.48, "volume": 29375251, "typical_volume": 19165722.05, "trend": 153.290872, "fair_value": 147.674765, "relative_strength": -11.173901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.28648, "energy": 21.651552, "activity_lines": [ 144.534667, 140.054141, 143.780649, 147.707327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.3, "volume": 22400786, "typical_volume": 19490592.4, "trend": 152.80643, "fair_value": 147.934444, "relative_strength": -14.716842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.909331, "energy": 23.941516, "activity_lines": [ 147.556667, 142.06868, 144.006096, 147.514368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }