{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3d31d09-dac4-44d1-95b2-8777759e34a5", "symbol": "SGO", "name": "Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 72.067, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.362, "architecture_energy": 39.464, "architecture_maturity": 23.502, "architecture_confidence": 54.03, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.26, "rotation_up": 54.99, "upward_expansion": 50.59, "deceleration": 32.86, "rotation_down": 29.63, "downward_expansion": 20.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.181335, 79.110547, 77.542355, 77.184634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 85.440002, "trend_reference": 78.115, "distance_from_trend": 0.093772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.614895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.441222, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032828, "excess_performance": -0.086139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084497, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1045, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.946635, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5169362, "relative_activity": 1.123706, "balance": 1.946635, "dry_up": 0.995824, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050046, "annualized_volatility": 0.353542, "from_high_reference": -0.15196, "from_low_reference": 0.296904 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.115, "fair_value_reference": 78.614895, "structural_low": 65.879997, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009761, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.014832, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.144256, "worst_return": -0.209773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.130824, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.060936, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.230283, "worst_return": -0.205321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.250141, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.122591, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.403057, "worst_return": -0.064642, "sufficient": 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"energy": 18.715438, "activity_lines": [ 76.213336, 76.749445, 75.959022, 76.513924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.32, "volume": 4823611, "typical_volume": 4783034.6, "trend": 78.087, "fair_value": 78.43965, "relative_strength": -6.384278, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.87433, "energy": 6.103601, "activity_lines": [ 77.534669, 77.630733, 76.577164, 76.710246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.440002, "volume": 5169362, "typical_volume": 4600281.5, "trend": 78.115, "fair_value": 78.614895, "relative_strength": -3.441222, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.362187, "energy": 39.464383, "activity_lines": [ 80.181335, 79.110547, 77.542355, 77.184634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }