{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3d9298a-ee2a-45c3-9baa-bb47a1605af0", "symbol": "XLES", "name": "Invesco Energy S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.15, "architecture_energy": 41.784, "architecture_maturity": 5.147, "architecture_confidence": 69.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.07, "rotation_up": 66.12, "upward_expansion": 74.36, "deceleration": 59.46, "rotation_down": 11.35, "downward_expansion": 5.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 820.50999, 801.905446, 798.783329, 797.01817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 814.599976, "trend_reference": 783.765, "distance_from_trend": 0.039342, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 631.86514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289199, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.794501, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.107245, "excess_performance": 0.056009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039342, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289199, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057945, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107245, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.858711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14812, "relative_activity": 1.37453, "balance": 1.858711, "dry_up": 0.784703, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047076, "annualized_volatility": 0.270061, "from_high_reference": -0.084411, "from_low_reference": 0.406423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 783.765, "fair_value_reference": 631.86514, "structural_low": 734.200012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008118, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.015853, "regime_survival": 0.607143, "best_return": 0.138874, "worst_return": -0.188974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019366, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.022979, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.273655, "worst_return": -0.073423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002817, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.052922, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.306246, "worst_return": -0.133958, "sufficient": true }, { 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3.815566, "energy": 23.384596, "activity_lines": [ 762.209986, 777.050901, 789.378569, 782.51 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 809.700012, "volume": 6494, "typical_volume": 12180.45, "trend": 764.038336, "fair_value": 626.950429, "relative_strength": 9.183381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.550455, "energy": 15.845713, "activity_lines": [ 776.233325, 781.217267, 790.701427, 785.881936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 841.799988, "volume": 5835, "typical_volume": 11448.35, "trend": 771.498336, "fair_value": 628.758057, "relative_strength": 11.681248, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.682052, "energy": 25.619928, "activity_lines": [ 800.936658, 790.741811, 794.86476, 790.898817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 830.0, "volume": 6683, "typical_volume": 10731.7, "trend": 778.251668, "fair_value": 630.398634, "relative_strength": 8.434387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.37287, "energy": 39.186736, "activity_lines": [ 815.653329, 797.763631, 797.631426, 794.673118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 814.599976, "volume": 14812, "typical_volume": 10776.05, "trend": 783.765, "fair_value": 631.86514, "relative_strength": 5.794501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.150102, "energy": 41.783737, "activity_lines": [ 820.50999, 801.905446, 798.783329, 797.01817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }