{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3e682ba-0693-4c66-93f8-d622eea8d6a8", "symbol": "ROHLTD", "name": "Royal Orchid Hotels Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.299, "architecture_energy": 46.228, "architecture_maturity": 63.587, "architecture_confidence": 87.881, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.79, "rotation_up": 15.75, "upward_expansion": 7.92, "deceleration": 42.7, "rotation_down": 60.62, "downward_expansion": 83.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 317.976676, 321.161826, 326.295242, 330.016454 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 323.200012, "trend_reference": 338.373335, "distance_from_trend": -0.044842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 365.508996, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.225205, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137328, "excess_performance": -0.093619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115754, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.032446, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99692, "relative_activity": 0.569827, "balance": 2.032446, "dry_up": 0.594197, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055265, "annualized_volatility": 0.354912, "from_high_reference": -0.455342, "from_low_reference": 0.199703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 338.373335, "fair_value_reference": 365.508996, "structural_low": 269.399994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003705, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.019226, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.111903, "worst_return": -0.109258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089946, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037763, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.409938, "worst_return": -0.112203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.049856, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020313, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.210005, "worst_return": -0.189227, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 312.850006, "volume": 110089, "typical_volume": 191409.7, "trend": 340.238334, "fair_value": 365.35855, "relative_strength": -18.615107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.786839, "energy": 54.155548, "activity_lines": [ 316.783341, 321.271824, 326.812146, 331.115701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 323.200012, "volume": 99692, "typical_volume": 174951.2, "trend": 338.373335, "fair_value": 365.508996, "relative_strength": -16.225205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.298992, "energy": 46.228169, "activity_lines": [ 317.976676, 321.161826, 326.295242, 330.016454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }