{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3e9ad77-7e5e-476c-9676-d0b38d63e81a", "symbol": "OFS", "name": "OFS Capital Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 11.19, "architecture_energy": 6.138, "architecture_maturity": 23.91, "architecture_confidence": 49.625, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.31, "rotation_up": 23.34, "upward_expansion": 34.69, "deceleration": 63.92, "rotation_down": 36.21, "downward_expansion": 44.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.554667, 3.544365, 3.51881, 3.509853 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 3.602008, "distance_from_trend": 0.074401, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.964048, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.935899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036619, "excess_performance": -0.224073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074401, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048349, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249359, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179287, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.252696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 377980, "relative_activity": 1.13847, "balance": 1.252696, "dry_up": 0.792904, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091803, "annualized_volatility": 0.579293, "from_high_reference": -0.484178, "from_low_reference": 0.491711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.602008, "fair_value_reference": 5.964048, "structural_low": 2.594336, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.002443, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -9.7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129383, "worst_return": -0.218075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054559, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.101066, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.14885, "worst_return": -0.350849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015137, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.041275, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16822, "worst_return": -0.503024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.009988, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.150648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172551, "worst_return": -0.064724, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12747, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047835, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064351, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004969, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-12", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.72, "volume": 242160, "typical_volume": 416278.95, "trend": 3.703681, "fair_value": 6.039721, "relative_strength": -33.443858, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.412423, "energy": 9.362551, "activity_lines": [ 3.607393, 3.521174, 3.495611, 3.55242 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.5, "volume": 192935, "typical_volume": 404780.9, "trend": 3.68194, "fair_value": 6.02168, "relative_strength": -33.394754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.520386, "energy": 8.94865, "activity_lines": [ 3.575333, 3.523779, 3.500316, 3.539279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.27, "volume": 210176, "typical_volume": 396949.3, "trend": 3.652834, "fair_value": 6.000591, "relative_strength": -35.48788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.318752, "energy": 16.093019, "activity_lines": [ 3.474667, 3.488501, 3.484464, 3.512702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.36, "volume": 271908, "typical_volume": 378580.95, "trend": 3.621323, "fair_value": 5.98008, "relative_strength": -32.735602, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.732087, "energy": 22.36208, "activity_lines": [ 3.428667, 3.471172, 3.478424, 3.49381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.87, "volume": 377980, "typical_volume": 332007.1, "trend": 3.602008, "fair_value": 5.964048, "relative_strength": -24.935899, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.190004, "energy": 6.137892, "activity_lines": [ 3.554667, 3.544365, 3.51881, 3.509853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }