{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3f26252-ed24-425a-a21d-1986fddc1cfa", "symbol": "MIJ", "name": "Alliance Healthcare Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.261, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.325, "architecture_energy": 36.864, "architecture_maturity": 50.651, "architecture_confidence": 84.571, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.01, "rotation_up": 31.67, "upward_expansion": 50.94, "deceleration": 84.14, "rotation_down": 25.91, "downward_expansion": 28.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.158, 0.158236, 0.158333, 0.1552 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.158, "trend_reference": 0.147767, "distance_from_trend": 0.069253, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.132679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.231725, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.436364, "excess_performance": 0.281529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069253, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109359, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.436364, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.994751, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.994751, "dry_up": 0.046245, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013632, "annualized_volatility": 0.387331, "from_high_reference": -0.036585, "from_low_reference": 0.795455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.147767, "fair_value_reference": 0.132679, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.007731, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.051851, "worst_return": -0.173407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011432, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009684, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.313559, "worst_return": -0.047719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005715, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008647, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.250878, "worst_return": -0.132945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060603, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"energy": 48.76304, "activity_lines": [ 0.158867, 0.159036, 0.156914, 0.150568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.158, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 98275.0, "trend": 0.142333, "fair_value": 0.13273, "relative_strength": 1.346583, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.256545, "energy": 44.118928, "activity_lines": [ 0.158333, 0.158782, 0.157386, 0.151673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.158, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93695.0, "trend": 0.143667, "fair_value": 0.132627, "relative_strength": 0.508711, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.078555, "energy": 42.17098, "activity_lines": [ 0.1582, 0.158618, 0.157767, 0.152684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.158, "volume": 10800, "typical_volume": 71315.0, "trend": 0.145, "fair_value": 0.132524, "relative_strength": -0.747582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.0005, "energy": 40.048323, "activity_lines": [ 0.158067, 0.158545, 0.158033, 0.153609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.158, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66810.0, "trend": 0.146333, "fair_value": 0.132601, "relative_strength": -1.22704, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.386296, "energy": 44.571681, "activity_lines": [ 0.158, 0.158418, 0.158224, 0.154447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.158, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 58385.0, "trend": 0.147767, "fair_value": 0.132679, "relative_strength": -2.231725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.324572, "energy": 36.863972, "activity_lines": [ 0.158, 0.158236, 0.158333, 0.1552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }