{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3f5e705-e5ab-46d3-9e39-ec8a4d687922", "symbol": "ALU10", "name": "U10 Corp", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.253, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.288, "architecture_energy": 18.244, "architecture_maturity": 35.016, "architecture_confidence": 45.837, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.95, "rotation_up": 18.34, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 62.03, "rotation_down": 58.56, "downward_expansion": 44.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.24, 1.258909, 1.271595, 1.258527 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.28, "trend_reference": 1.247833, "distance_from_trend": 0.025778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.32365, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.79318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04918, "excess_performance": -0.004131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032977, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053103, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.31913, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17359, "relative_activity": 1.011143, "balance": 2.31913, "dry_up": 1.510176, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055288, "annualized_volatility": 0.290745, "from_high_reference": -0.135135, "from_low_reference": 0.163636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.247833, "fair_value_reference": 1.32365, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.004808, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.001341, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.289474, "worst_return": -0.091787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.037975, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.034899, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029167, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020942, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.335748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036232, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.292232, "energy": 20.04642, "activity_lines": [ 1.265333, 1.292182, 1.276976, 1.262118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 27640, "typical_volume": 19123.65, "trend": 1.252, "fair_value": 1.322785, "relative_strength": -10.099836, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.224737, "energy": 26.668554, "activity_lines": [ 1.236667, 1.274909, 1.272881, 1.259194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.21, "volume": 29956, "typical_volume": 19045.2, "trend": 1.248333, "fair_value": 1.323073, "relative_strength": -11.097175, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.797979, "energy": 29.120572, "activity_lines": [ 1.220667, 1.259636, 1.268952, 1.256484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.28, "volume": 17359, "typical_volume": 17167.7, "trend": 1.247833, "fair_value": 1.32365, "relative_strength": -7.79318, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.288304, "energy": 18.244076, "activity_lines": [ 1.24, 1.258909, 1.271595, 1.258527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }