{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3f6990a-aa7d-4436-ba6c-100428b35714", "symbol": "300531", "name": "Urovo Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.64, "architecture_energy": 21.633, "architecture_maturity": 63.33, "architecture_confidence": 63.656, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.14, "rotation_up": 31.08, "upward_expansion": 18.4, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 23.09, "downward_expansion": 54.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.71599, 16.194402, 16.745378, 17.207993 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.17, "trend_reference": 17.646924, "distance_from_trend": -0.027026, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.328995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.1201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.127375, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015482, "excess_performance": -0.022881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027026, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033487, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.1201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016369, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.086181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106646937, "relative_activity": 1.381512, "balance": 1.086181, "dry_up": 1.240237, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094606, "annualized_volatility": 0.454666, "from_high_reference": -0.274609, "from_low_reference": 0.166731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.646924, "fair_value_reference": 15.328995, "structural_low": 14.716326, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.033066, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.049396, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.313821, "worst_return": -0.126673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075886, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.044738, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.743089, "worst_return": -0.252156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.031201, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020468, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.50526, "worst_return": -0.248412, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -12.433063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.547533, "energy": 32.251181, "activity_lines": [ 15.907623, 15.716865, 16.848071, 17.284392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.02, "volume": 79728672, "typical_volume": 78207378.1, "trend": 17.675925, "fair_value": 15.305518, "relative_strength": -4.780838, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.703517, "energy": 21.860422, "activity_lines": [ 16.351655, 15.929452, 16.786844, 17.240633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.17, "volume": 106646937, "typical_volume": 77195835.1, "trend": 17.646924, "fair_value": 15.328995, "relative_strength": -8.127375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.639591, "energy": 21.632793, "activity_lines": [ 16.71599, 16.194402, 16.745378, 17.207993 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }