{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f3fba328-4619-4a8f-8b72-3c356d06ec1a", "symbol": "UB20", "name": "UBS MSCI Pacific ex Japan UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.349, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.186, "architecture_energy": 93.763, "architecture_maturity": 37.237, "architecture_confidence": 69.276, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.44, "rotation_up": 85.95, "upward_expansion": 96.55, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.19, "downward_expansion": 20.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 4190.2, 4127.663636, 4083.661905, 4058.065747 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4286.0, "trend_reference": 4022.677962, "distance_from_trend": 0.065459, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3547.126845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.285289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083294, "excess_performance": 0.032059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065459, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028803, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046665, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012853, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.126816, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4572, "relative_activity": 2.253716, "balance": 3.126816, "dry_up": 1.066473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015415, "annualized_volatility": 0.132498, "from_high_reference": -0.001675, "from_low_reference": 0.173124 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4022.677962, "fair_value_reference": 3547.126845, "structural_low": 3820.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.000592, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.011794, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.063753, "worst_return": -0.058897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017612, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014959, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.060537, "worst_return": -0.058002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037912, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.118988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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71.865506, "activity_lines": [ 4091.533333, 4062.118182, 4044.540476, 4027.97565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4179.0, "volume": 1304, "typical_volume": 2002.5, "trend": 4006.343758, "fair_value": 3539.993435, "relative_strength": -0.989176, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.957515, "energy": 80.727335, "activity_lines": [ 4128.4, 4086.563636, 4059.57381, 4040.023409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4286.0, "volume": 4572, "typical_volume": 2028.65, "trend": 4022.677962, "fair_value": 3547.126845, "relative_strength": 1.285289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.186169, "energy": 93.76268, "activity_lines": [ 4190.2, 4127.663636, 4083.661905, 4058.065747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }